The Baccarat Sure-Win Formula Explained

Baccarat is a game that has always been popular in casinos. European casinos more than American casinos, it must be said. However, when the author Ian Fleming revealed that James Bond was partial to a game, this exposure saw an increase in people looking to participate. 

Casino games such as roulette or slot machines enjoy most of the popularity with gamblers, and baccarat is an underrated game that flies under the radar for the most part. It is a fairly straightforward game to learn and play, meaning you don’t have to spend hundreds of hours at the table to master it as you would with poker, for instance. 

What Are the Chances of Winning a Hand In Baccarat?

We will examine the probabilities of winning a hand in baccarat in great detail for you today. 

Unfortunately, there is no sure-win formula when it comes to baccarat. However, we will help you crunch the numbers and see if it helps you apply theory to your strategy. The complex card probabilities can be utilized in land-based and online casinos alike, and you can try them out yourself at

There are three potential outcomes during a game of baccarat:

    1. The banker wins
    2. You win
    3. Draw

If you are starting and learning the ropes with this particular casino game, you may think the banker refers to the dealer of the gambling operator. You would be mistaken. If you participate in a Baccarat hand, you can bet on the banker’s or the player’s hand.

As the article’s title says, today we will explore the baccarat sure win formula. Many Baccarat strategies exist, such as the 1-2-4-3 combination. There are a host of others that players implement into their games with wildly varying degrees of success.

Some Baccarat players are more successful than others, and we aren’t just referring to Sean Connery’s performance as James Bond in Dr No in 1962. The most crucial thing to remember when gambling is that there isn’t a set strategy to guarantee money. 

By all means, you can weigh up the odds and probability and use it to gain a slight advantage as to whether your hand will be the one that comes out on top. However, just because you understand the maths and probability of a hand does not mean that it will go your way.

If you bet with the banker, you have marginally better odds of winning the hand. Much like anything in life, it is important to study how the game works, how regular players operate and whether there are any theories you can apply that will help you in your quest to leave the table in profit.  

Betting with the banker puts the odds in your favour due to how the maths works. The expected winning probability is 50.6%. If you multiply this winning per credit (0.95) whilst factoring in the commission of 5%, you are left with odds of 48.1%

As a Baccarat player, this calculation means you should anticipate an average loss of 49.32%. The odds of a draw equate to nearly 10%.  

There are a lot of facts and figures to get your head around here, so we apologise if this has made you feel slightly dizzy. You don’t need to have the maths skill of Matt Damon’s character in Good Will Hunting to figure out these odds, but we can appreciate it may take a few goes to understand it completely. 

All we have done to arrive at these final figures are basic probability equations. It will become second nature if you learn how to play baccarat, gain experience on the table, and keep maths at the forefront of your strategy. 

One thing you don’t want to do is stifle your enjoyment. There is no point standing there and juggling numbers all day to play a baccarat game. If you keep it fun and only gamble with money you can afford to lose, you will be able to keep it light and maintain it as a fun hobby. 

If you find yourself chasing losses or gambling more often than you want to, stop immediately and seek help from a professional who can help you.


A sure-win formula doesn’t exist in any casino game, unfortunately. Whilst games such as poker and blackjack may be able to employ other variables such as working out complex card probabilities (blackjack) and by using psychology and reading body language (poker) – Baccarat does not fall into either of these categories.

Be wary if you encounter a player or article online that tells you they have a sure-win formula. It isn’t possible to alter the odds in your favour when it comes to a set card game that uses a standard number of cards. Be it poker, blackjack or baccarat. The odds remain fixed.

If you implement the maths, follow regular players and ask them their strategy, these are all good tools to ensure you aren’t going into the game with no preparation.